Yankees vs. Cubs: Can Aaron Judge-Less New York Survive Imanaga's Heater?

Two of baseball's most storied franchises are about to collide at one of the sport's most iconic ballparks, and this weekend series could not be more lopsided on paper. The New York Yankees roll into Wrigley Field missing two of their biggest bats, while the Chicago Cubs are riding their hottest starting pitcher of the season. Today we're breaking down Yankees versus Cubs, Will Warren against Shota Imanaga, and why oddsmakers are already leaning hard toward Chicago.

Stick around, because we're getting into the pitching matchups, the injury report, and exactly what each team needs to do to walk away with this series win.

It's a Friday matinee at Wrigley Field, first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. Eastern time. The Yankees arrive in Chicago after dropping back-to-back extra-innings games on the south side against the White Sox, looking to shake off some road fatigue. The Cubs, meanwhile, enter the weekend having won back-to-back series, including their most recent set against St. Louis, and they currently hold the fifth-best record in all of Major League Baseball.

In the standings, Chicago sits five and a half games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, but don't let that gap fool you. Before Thursday, the Cubs had the exact same record as the Yankees. This is a genuinely strong ballclub that just happens to be chasing an even better one.

Let's talk about the man on the mound for Chicago, because this is where the story really gets interesting. Shota Imanaga, the 2024 All-Star left-hander, has been an absolute revelation lately. Across his last eight outings, he's posted a 2.00 ERA over 45 innings, and he's allowed more than two earned runs in only one start since June 10th. In July alone, he's running a 1.19 ERA across four starts, including back-to-back scoreless outings in his two most recent appearances.

With Chicago's rotation banged up — Ben Brown dealing with a neck injury, Edward Cabrera nursing a hamstring issue, and Cade Horton out with an elbow problem — Imanaga has stepped up as the de facto ace of this staff, and he's answering the call in a big way. He's inducing weak contact at an elite level, sitting around 85.7 miles per hour average exit velocity against, with a hard-hit rate south of 27 percent. Simply put, hitters are not squaring him up right now.

Now for New York's side of this. Will Warren gets the ball for the Yankees, and it has not been a kind July for the right-hander. Warren is 0 and 2 this month with a 7.50 ERA, and his last time out was a disaster — six earned runs allowed in just three innings in a loss to the Phillies. Zoom out to his last five appearances overall, and the numbers are still ugly: a 7.50 ERA and opposing hitters slugging nearly .681 against him. Behind the scenes, Warren is reportedly already losing his grip on a rotation spot to Ryan Weathers, with Carlos Rodón's eventual return from injury only adding more pressure.

Here's where things get even tougher for New York. The Yankees are walking into Wrigley Field without Aaron Judge and without Cody Bellinger, two of the most important bats in their lineup. Losing that kind of middle-of-the-order thunder against a pitcher who's currently must-see appointment viewing is not the recipe most teams would draw up.

On the other side, Chicago's lineup is stacked and healthy at the plate, even with pitching injuries mounting. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting together an MVP-caliber season and is currently considered the frontrunner for National League Most Valuable Player. Beyond him, seven other Cubs position players are running an above-average OPS-plus this season. As a team, Chicago is scoring at an elite clip — only the Washington Nationals have averaged more runs per game this season across all of baseball.

Chicago's lineup construction for this one raised a few eyebrows. With Seiya Suzuki getting the afternoon off, Pedro Ramirez slots into the two-hole, a nod to how productive he's quietly been in the second half of the season. Alex Bregman shifts over to designated hitter, opening up third base for Ramirez, while Michael Conforto steps into right field — another tough left-handed matchup for a Will Warren staff that has historically struggled against lefty bats.

It's a lineup built specifically to attack Warren's weaknesses, and against a pitcher on this kind of skid, that matters.

So where does the betting market land on all this? Chicago opened as a home favorite at around minus-one forty-five. That's a significant number for a single regular-season baseball game, but when you stack a red-hot Imanaga against a struggling Warren, on top of the Yankees missing Judge and Bellinger, the market's confidence makes a lot of sense.

Add in the fact that Chicago's bullpen has been trending in noticeably better shape than New York's, which has dealt with its own workload concerns, and you've got a home team with the pitching edge, the lineup depth, and the momentum heading into Friday afternoon.

This is shaping up to be one of the more lopsided pitching matchups of the weekend around Major League Baseball. Shota Imanaga is pitching like a true ace right now, Will Warren is fighting to keep his rotation spot, and the Yankees are trying to piece together enough offense without two of their best hitters in the lineup. Wrigley Field on a Friday afternoon, first pitch at 2:20 Eastern — this one has real drama built in before a single pitch is even thrown.

Let us know in the comments who you've got winning this one, Yankees or Cubs. And if you want more in-depth MLB previews like this one all season long, make sure you're subscribed to Stateline Report. Thanks for watching.